28.01.202513:36 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Prospects for the Pair

Today, the EUR/USD pair continues to retreat from the monthly high marked on January 17, trading around 1.1428, which is more than 0.50% lower from the start of the current trading session.

The main reason for this decline is the growing demand for the US dollar. Investors remain concerned that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs may reignite inflation fears, leading to a modest increase in US Treasury yields. This also supports the US Dollar Index, which is showing solid growth after hitting a monthly low the previous day, putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Additionally, Trump has recently threatened to impose tariffs on several countries, including Mexico, Canada, China, and the European Union. This situation, combined with expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, negatively impacts the euro and contributes to the decline in EUR/USD.

However, bearish sentiment may remain subdued ahead of key central bank events. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its monetary policy decisions on Wednesday, followed by the ECB meeting on Thursday. These events could significantly influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Today, Tuesday, traders should focus on US macroeconomic data, particularly the Consumer Confidence Index, to identify better trading opportunities.

From a technical standpoint, it is too early to confirm a full-fledged bearish trend since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet entered negative territory. Furthermore, the 14-day EMA remains below the 9-day EMA, indicating that the current decline is likely corrective.

Conclusion

Given the fundamental backdrop, it would be prudent to wait for stronger selling momentum to confirm that the recent recovery in the EUR/USD pair from monthly lows and a multi-month downtrend has run its course.