28.01.202514:06 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 28th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0433 level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid sell entry to continue the morning trend. However, as seen on the chart, after a 10-point drop, bearish pressure on the euro weakened.

The decline in interest in the euro is evident. This can be attributed not only to political maneuvers but also to broader economic trends. Increased volatility in financial markets has led investors to favor more stable assets, such as the US dollar. This creates additional pressure on the euro, prompting many to revise their forecasts for the pair's direction. Moreover, the disparity in economic indicators between the Eurozone and the US plays a significant role. While the US economy shows strong growth, some European countries are grappling with recession and instability.

Later today, key US economic reports are expected, including the Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Housing Price Index. Strong statistics could bolster the dollar. The Consumer Confidence Index is a key indicator reflecting consumer sentiment and willingness to spend. High confidence levels can signal increased consumer spending, positively impacting the economy and strengthening the dollar.

For intraday strategies, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.0445 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0491. I plan to exit the market at 1.0491 and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point retracement. Expect euro growth today only if US data comes in weak.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0421 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. The expected targets are 1.0445 and 1.0491.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.0421 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0387, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point retracement. Bearish pressure on the pair could return at any time, especially after strong US data.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0445 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. The expected targets are 1.0421 and 1.0387.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders should approach market entry decisions with caution. It's better to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set Stop-Loss orders to minimize losses. Without Stop-Loss protection, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper risk management.

Finally, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.