30.01.202507:49 Analisis Forex & Kajian: What to Pay Attention to on January 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A number of significant macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday. The most important releases will be the GDP reports for Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States for the fourth quarter. However, it is essential to note that during the European trading session, the market may still be reacting to Wednesday's FOMC meeting and the European Central Bank meeting announcement. As a result, these macroeconomic reports may be overshadowed by other fundamental events. Additionally, the EU unemployment rate and US jobless claims reports are unlikely to capture traders' interest today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The key event to watch today is the ECB meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell did not provoke a strong market reaction, but his moderately hawkish stance has already been a bullish factor for the U.S. dollar. If the ECB maintains its dovish position today, the likelihood of further appreciation of the USD will increase. Lagarde and her colleagues have consistently indicated that the ECB is prepared to continue easing monetary policy, so no surprises are anticipated from the central bank. However, the market may require a catalyst to prompt a downward movement for the euro. Additionally, GDP data could provide further confirmation of the strength of the U.S. economy compared to the weakness in the Eurozone.

General Conclusions:

On Thursday, market movements could be quite unpredictable. Although the market did not react strongly to the FOMC meeting and no major surprises are expected from the ECB, events of this magnitude can still trigger significant volatility, even without any major new information. The market's reaction will largely depend on how participants interpret the available data. The euro and pound may continue their medium-term corrections for several weeks, but a downward pullback is likely in the coming days.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.