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10.08.200917:50 Analisis Forex & Kajian: The analytic review of the currency pair EUR/USD for 07.08.09., with the forecast for today (10.08.09.).

The European currency was under a great pressure from the US dollar on Friday, declining from the level of 1.4350 to 1.4176. The Asian trading session opened in the range of 1.4326-14379. Only by the end of the European trading session, after the release of the fundamental data the US dollar started to strengthen sweepingly and won back a plenty of lost positions. Totally, the European currency gave up 166 points, the volatility rate of the trades came to 258 pips.

During the first part of the session German trade balance data was released, which appeared to be at 11.0B, as it was expected. Then France trade balance was announced, it declined to -1.00B for the previous period and showed the meaning at the level of -4/00B. Italy GDP was a surprise for traders, showing the decrease only to -0.50%, which was better than experts predictions of reducing to -0.7%.
  

The nonfarm payrolls made a strong pressure for the market, these data showed the decrease to the level of -247K, compared to the previous decline to -443K. This data results were the first signs for the US dollar strengthening, allowing the pair the break through the first support level near 1.4326. The unemployment rate decreased to 9.40%, compared to the experts predictions of the growth by 9.6%. Average hourly earnings grew by 0.2%. We could expect the increase of this indicator because of the US households personal spending upturned last week.

Now let's speak about the technical picture. The sharp decline of the pair in one day to such a great deal of points suggests about the Euro weakness at this moment. 200-day exponential moving average coming at the level of 1.4300, was broken through then the decline to the basic level of 42nd figure came.

According to Friday's trades we can mark the next up-going price channel from July 29, 2009. Currently, the pair is trading at its low border. Also the pair was able to break through 23.6% and closed below 38.2% of Fibo correctional levels (July, 08 minimum). the support level 1.4141 remains to be actual in the short — term trading. the Fibo level of 50.0% is also located on it.

The support levels: 1.4142, 1.4092, 1.4065.
The resistance levels: 1.4212, 1.4277, 1.4326.

Today I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour closing timeframe above the level 1.4220 with the target — T/P 1.4329 and S/L 1.4174.
Sell the pair at 1-hour closing timeframe below the level 1.4175 with the target — T/P 1.4136 and S/L 1.4215.

Kind regards,

Analyst: Magdalinin M.
 

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