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The anticipated correction for the dollar remains unfulfilled, as the modest signs of its beginning led nowhere. The dollar began to grow actively again. The reason behind this development is a series of statements from Federal Reserve representatives suggesting that there is no need to maintain the current pace of rate cuts. Instead, they even hinted at possibly slowing down the cuts, suggesting a potential pause. This means that by the end of the year, the U.S. central bank might lower rates only once rather than twice as previously anticipated. Not surprisingly, this has fueled the dollar's upward movement.
Today, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) representatives to make statements regarding monetary policy. There's a high chance that the euro might see a rebound, potentially marking the start of the much-anticipated correction. Over the past three months, the ECB has cut the refinancing rate by a total of 85 basis points—a significant reduction. Many expected that the recent ECB Governing Council meeting would not change the rates, which seemed quite reasonable. After such active monetary easing and a drop in inflation below 2.0%, the ECB might opt to pause and observe further developments.
This situation could lead to a scenario where, even if the Fed slows its pace of monetary easing, it continues to lower interest rates while the ECB at least takes a short pause, keeping rates steady. This would be enough for the euro to strengthen. Thus, the second attempt at a correction could be successful.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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