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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.2771 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the pound. A similar situation occurred after the pound fell to 1.2755, so I also avoided opening short positions.
In the second half of the day, traders will closely monitor U.S. labor market data and inflation figures, as these could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If initial jobless claims fall below expectations, it could indicate further strengthening of the labor market. In such a case, expectations of maintaining interest rates unchanged may increase, boosting demand for the U.S. dollar.
On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, is a more important indicator of inflation trends. An increase in this index could signal rising price pressures in the production sector, which may also influence the Fed's decision-making on interest rate adjustments. Traders will analyze each data point to better evaluate the future direction of monetary policy. If the data exceeds forecasts, it could strengthen the dollar, putting additional pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1:Buy the pound today at around 1.2759 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2815 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2815, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a correction of 30-35 points. Pound appreciation today is only likely after weaker inflation data from the U.S.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2731, with the MACD in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2759 and 1.2815.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:Sell the pound after breaking below 1.2731 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2686, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25 point upward correction). Sellers will only show significant activity in case of strong U.S. inflation data.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2759, with the MACD in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2731 and 1.2686.
Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions cautiously. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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