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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Monday following a rebound from the support zone of 1.2363–1.2370, ending the day by consolidating above the 1.2488–1.2508 zone. This growth could potentially continue toward the next corrective level of 200.0% at 1.2569 today. A reversal from this level or a consolidation below the 1.2488–1.2508 zone may signal a decline in the pound toward the support zone of 1.2363–1.2370.
The wave structure raises no doubts. The last completed downward wave broke the previous wave's low, while the new upward wave has yet to break the previous low. This confirms the ongoing formation of a bearish trend, with no signs of completion yet. To end this trend, the pound must at least rise to the 1.2611–1.2622 zone and consolidate above it.
On Monday, the pound wasn't expected to show significant growth, but it found unexpected support. Under the influence of a report on German inflation, the euro posted a sharp increase, which the pound followed. Additionally, the U.S. ISM Services PMI index, which rose only to 56.8 in December versus the expected 58.5, offered slight support. While a reading of 56.8 can't be called "weak," the market seemed to interpret it differently. In my view, the pound leveraged yesterday's circumstances for more than 100% of its potential. From now until the end of the week, luck may not be as favorable. For example, the ISM Services PMI in the U.S. could trigger growth in the U.S. dollar. However, above the 1.2488–1.2508 zone, the pound's growth is likely to continue. I remain bearish until clear signals of a trend reversal emerge, which will require predominantly weak U.S. economic data this week.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound and started moving back toward the 76.4% correction level at 1.2565. The descending trend channel indicates bearish dominance, which they are unlikely to relinquish soon. Only a consolidation above the channel would signal strong growth potential for the pound. A reversal from 1.2565, 1.2620, or the upper boundary of the channel will favor the U.S. dollar.
The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders has barely changed over the past week. The number of long positions decreased by 3,707, while short positions fell by 1,383. Bulls still hold the advantage, but it has been steadily eroding in recent months. The gap between the number of long and short positions is now only 19,000: 84,000 versus 65,000.
In my opinion, the pound still has potential for a decline, as COT reports indicate that bearish positions are strengthening almost every week. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has dropped from 160,000 to 84,000, while shorts have risen from 52,000 to 65,000. I believe professional players will continue to reduce their long positions or increase their shorts over time, as all possible factors supporting the pound have already been priced in. Technical analysis also supports a bearish outlook for the pound.
Tuesday's economic calendar includes two events, with the impact on trader sentiment expected to be moderate.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Recommendations:
Selling opportunities arise if the pair consolidates below the 1.2488–1.2508 zone, targeting 1.2370, or in the case of a reversal from the 1.2569 level on the hourly chart. Buying was possible after a rebound from the 1.2363–1.2370 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2488. That target has been reached and surpassed, with the next target at 1.2569.
Fibonacci levels are plotted between 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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