17.01.202507:51 Forex Analyse & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on January 17? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Numerous macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but none are particularly significant. Currently, both currency pairs are experiencing relatively high volatility, indicating that the macroeconomic backdrop is not the main driver of market movements. For instance, several reports were released yesterday, but they had no substantial impact on the markets. Today, the UK will release its retail sales report, the EU will release the second estimate of inflation for December, and the US will provide data on industrial production, building permits, and new home sales. If any of these reports show figures that deviate significantly from forecasts, we could see a relatively strong market reaction. However, it's unlikely that today's data will shift market sentiment in a major way.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Friday's fundamental events, Joachim Nagel's speech (the President of the Bundesbank) stands out. However, the Eurozone has recently been lacking significant events or reports, and the European Central Bank's position, which is more critical, is already well understood: they will continue with monetary policy easing without pauses or interruptions. Therefore, we do not expect Nagel to provide any information that could move the markets today.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the week, we can expect moderate market movements, as there are no significant events on the agenda. The most notable reports to watch will be the US industrial production data and the UK retail sales report. Given this week's inflation data, it is likely that both currency pairs will continue to decline. However, today's trading decisions will primarily rely on technical analysis.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.