17.03.202509:04 Forex Analyse & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 17. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 148.63 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test at 148.64, when the MACD was in the oversold zone, allowed Scenario #2 for buying to play out, leading to a 20-pip increase in the pair before demand for the dollar subsided.

Expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan limit the pair's upside potential. Market participants are actively shifting their currency holdings to the yen, fearing further economic problems in the United States. This trend positively impacts the value of the Japanese currency, increasing its appeal on a global scale. Traders assume that the Bank of Japan, considering signs of stable inflation, will likely continue tightening its monetary policy. Further interest rate hikes could drive an inflow of capital into the country and strengthen the yen's upward trajectory.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 149.16 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 149.92 (thicker green line). Around 149.92, I plan to exit buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip downward move from this level. It is best to return to buying the pair during pullbacks and significant declines in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just started rising.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.68 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 149.16 and 149.92 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after it breaks below 148.68 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.93, where I plan to exit my sell positions and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip rebound from this level. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just started declining.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.16 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 148.68 and 147.93 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.