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After several attempts and three weeks of consolidation, the bulls finally launched a breakout, allowing them to close yesterday well above the resistance levels of the Ichimoku Cloud on the monthly (1.0943) and weekly (1.0978) timeframes. Today marks the weekly close, and the bulls need to hold on to these gains. If the upward move continues, the pair may test the previous highs (1.1214 – 1.1276). If the gains are lost, the levels that have been breached may now act as support. Potential downside targets include the zones around 1.0978 – 1.0943 and 1.0856 – 1.0828.
Yesterday's momentum significantly expanded the boundaries of the classic Pivot levels. The resistance levels are at 1.1197 – 1.1342 – 1.1538 for further upward movement. Should the bears opt for a corrective pullback, they will encounter key levels at 1.1001 (daily central Pivot level) and 1.0865 (weekly long-term trend). A break below and reversal of the trend would allow the bears to shift the current balance of power in their favor. Further development of bearish sentiment would lead the pair toward the support levels of the classic Pivot points (1.0856 – 1.0660 – 1.0515).
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Out of the three weeks of uncertainty, the bulls were the first to break out. They pushed past the final daily target level (1.3047) without a retest. As the week draws to a close, holding on to the gains is crucial. If the upward movement continues, the bulls will aim for the previous high (1.3433). A breakout above that level would signal the end of the current monthly correction. If the bulls fail, their opponents could reclaim the advantage by breaking below the daily short-term trend support (1.3036) and quickly return the pair to the previous consolidation zone, centered around the upper boundary of the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.2957).
On the lower timeframes, the market is currently hovering around the central Pivot level (1.3091). Continuing the corrective pullback could lead the pair to test the weekly long-term trend level (1.2979), which currently reflects the existing balance of power. A break below this level would shift the main advantage to the bears. Further strengthening of bearish momentum could bring the pair down to the classic Pivot support levels at 1.2855 and 1.2739. If the bulls halt the correction at this stage, further upside potential would be realized through resistance levels at 1.3211 – 1.3327 – 1.3447.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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