The Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended lower on Monday, ending an impressive six-week rally. Investors were wary of rising Treasury yields and were waiting for more earnings reports from major companies.
"After six weeks of consecutive records, it's logical that the market needs a breather," said Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. With bond yields rising, market participants are taking a break, reassessing their outlook amid concerns about lofty market valuations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 344.31 points, or 0.80%, to 42,931.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 10.69 points, or 0.18%, to end the day at 5,853.98. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 50.45 points, or 0.27%, to 18,540.01, helped by a rally in Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares. The chipmaker's shares jumped 4.14%, closing at a record high of $143.71.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.17%, the highest in 12 weeks. This raised questions about the economic outlook.
"An increase in bond yields could indicate that the economy is growing too quickly, as well as persistently high employment levels," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. According to him, such a situation could slow the process of lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Recall that on Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 indices updated their records, ending the sixth week in positive territory in a row - the longest rally this year.
Rate-sensitive tech stocks were under pressure, with Tesla (TSLA.O) falling 0.84%, one of the victims of rising bond yields that has added to investor anxiety.
After a strong start to earnings season, investors were eagerly awaiting the results of 114 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week, including giants Tesla, Coca-Cola (KO.N) and Texas Instruments (TXN.O).
Analysts believe that market participants are taking some profits ahead of a busy earnings week. "Many are now assessing how overblown current market expectations are," said David Laut, chief investment officer at Abound Financial.
As of Friday, 83.1% of companies that had reported earnings in the past period had beaten earnings estimates, according to LSEG, highlighting the relative strength of the corporate sector.
The decline on Monday affected almost all the key sectors of the S&P 500, with 11 of them ending the day in the red. The traditionally rate-sensitive real estate sector (.SPLRCR) lost 2.08% as bond yields rose, while the tech sector managed to show positive momentum, led by a rise in Nvidia shares.
The Russell 2000 (.RUT), which includes economically sensitive small-cap companies, fell 1.61%, reflecting the jitters in the market.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on the upcoming US presidential election, where former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is showing positive momentum in the latest polls.
Danske Bank analysts warn: "As the election date approaches, even small changes in the polls could be a catalyst for significant swings in market sentiment."
Boeing (BA.N) shares rose 3.1% on news that a five-week strike could end. Workers could vote on a new deal that would allow the company to avoid further losses related to the production shutdown.
Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) shares soared 53.06%, which was a reaction to successful negotiations to extend the refinancing of its debt by two months. This allowed the company to buy time and stabilize its financial obligations, which attracted the attention of investors.
On the opposite side of the market, Humana (HUM.N) shares fell 2.46%. This is due to Cigna (CI.N) resuming merger talks with Humana, which caused some concerns in the market. The decline did not pass by Cigna shares, which lost 4.69%.
Investors are expecting the publication of a number of key economic data this week, including home sales reports, preliminary PMI indices, as well as durable goods data. In addition, the market will be focused on the release of the so-called Beige Book of the Federal Reserve, a document assessing the state of the economy.
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the vast majority of stocks ended the day in the red: for every one advancing stock, there were 3.51 declining ones. However, there were still some positive moments in the market: 262 new highs and 47 new lows were recorded.
The S&P 500 posted 42 new yearly highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite Index posted 89 new highs and 51 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.35 billion shares, slightly below the average volume of 11.59 billion over the past 20 trading days.
Global stock markets started the week lower as rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election kept traders cautious. This market sentiment played into gold's hands, as futures for the precious metal soared again, reaching new records.
Gold prices hit new all-time highs on Monday, remaining at $2,719.33 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to close the day at $2,738.9. Gold's rise reflects investor sentiment, which is seeking safe havens amid uncertainty and turbulence in global markets.
Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares are back on a high, finishing at a record high. The gains come ahead of a big earnings week, raising investor expectations for strong financial results.
European stock markets also fell in the general negative trend, with the STOXX index losing 0.66%. MSCI's Global Equities Index, which covers stock markets around the world, fell 0.37%. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5%.
As James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, noted, there is a certain nervousness in the market right now due to the start of the busy earnings season. However, investors' attention is still focused on the US elections, which will take place in two weeks. Despite this, the usual pre-election volatility of September and October is felt less this year.
Oil prices demonstrate confident growth, adding almost 2% after a significant drop last week. Brent crude futures increased by 1.68%, reaching $ 74.29 per barrel, and American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose by 1.94%, stopping at $ 70.56 per barrel. This growth signals the return of confidence among market participants after the past fluctuations.
Markets are actively monitoring the probability of a Fed rate cut at the November meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 89.3%. Meanwhile, the chances of maintaining the current rate level remain minimal - only 10.7%.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also extended its climb, rising 11.9 basis points to 4.194%. The data underscores the tension in the market as players try to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next moves.
The US dollar continued to strengthen, supported by rising bond yields. The euro, on the other hand, weakened, falling 0.46% to $1.0815. Sterling also lost ground, falling 0.51% to $1.2982.
The Japanese yen came under pressure, with the dollar up 0.86% against the yen to $150.79. The gains in the US currency reflected global market sentiment driven by expectations of a tighter US monetary policy.
The European Central Bank took another step toward easing monetary policy last week, cutting interest rates for the third time this year. The measures are aimed at supporting the eurozone economy amid slowing growth and inflation pressures.
New data on Monday showed that German producer prices fell more than expected in September, adding to concerns about the outlook for Europe's largest economy, where manufacturing sectors continue to struggle amid global economic uncertainty.
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.49% to 103.97. The dollar's gains come as geopolitical tensions continue to mount, with the US presidential election looming, leading to increased market jitters.
Markets Brace for Election: Caution Among Investors
"With the Middle East escalating and the US election just days away, it is likely that markets are starting to get jittery and participants are trying to rebalance their positions," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners.
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