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03.01.202509:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Novice Traders on January 3

Sellers of the euro and pound did not wait for new fundamental guidance and sharply drove these currencies down against the US dollar, resulting in renewed monthly lows. Amid growing volatility in financial markets, traders are becoming more active, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to tight monetary policy is exacerbating the situation by putting pressure on risk assets.

The current economic climate in the eurozone is prompting traders to reassess their euro positions. New trade disputes between the US and the EU are expected to negatively impact exports, complicating the bloc's economic recovery. Investors are cautious about the risks associated with potential tariffs on European goods, which dampens market sentiment. Additionally, the looming energy crisis resulting from high gas prices and the need to transition to more sustainable energy sources further increases uncertainty among European countries.

Today, Germany will release unemployment figures along with changes in the number of unemployed individuals, coinciding with a speech by European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip Lane. In the UK, data related to changes in the M4 money supply and the number of approved mortgage applications could put pressure on the pound. Caution is advised when considering buy positions.

If the data meets economists' expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is preferable. However, if the data significantly exceeds or falls below expectations, the Momentum strategy should be utilized.

Momentum Strategy (on Breakout)

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.0297, may lead to the euro rising to the area of 1.0334 and 1.0372.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.0257, may lead to the euro falling to the area of 1.0228 and 1.0180.

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.2408, may lead to the pound rising to the area of 1.2452 and 1.2488.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.2354, may lead to the pound falling to the area of 1.2311 and 1.2265.

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 157.28, may lead to the dollar rising to the area of 157.70 and 158.04.
• Sell on a breakout below 156.94, may lead to the dollar falling to the area of 156.60 and 156.19.

Mean Reversion Strategy (on Reversal)

For EUR/USD:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0283 and a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0259 and a return above this level.

For GBP/USD:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.2409 and a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.2369 and a return above this level.

For AUD/USD:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6227 and a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6208 and a return above this level.

For USD/CAD:

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4397 and a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4369 and a return above this level.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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