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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the US dollar, returning to the 323.6% corrective level at 1.0532. While the lower boundary of the sideways range is likely just below this level, 1.0532 can still serve as a key price reference. A close below 1.0511 could signal further euro weakness, targeting the 1.0420 level.
The current wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the previous peak, while the ongoing downward wave has easily broken through the last two lows. This confirms the continuation of the "bearish" trend. Bulls have lost momentum, and regaining control would require significant effort, which appears unlikely in the near term. For a trend reversal, the pair would need to rise above 1.0800, which seems improbable anytime soon.
On Wednesday, the euro's information backdrop was limited, with no impactful reports or statements from Europe or the US to influence trader sentiment. However, within the sideways range, the euro appears to be drifting lower. Over recent sessions, four consecutive peaks formed, each slightly higher than the previous. Yesterday, the bulls failed to form a fifth peak, raising the probability of a sharp euro decline today or tomorrow. While the informational backdrop will remain weak for the remainder of the week, it's worth noting that a lack of news doesn't necessarily equate to market inaction. A significant influx of capital into the market could push the pair out of its range. I expect a close below 1.0511, potentially triggering further declines.
The pair has returned to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.0603, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the US dollar. Simultaneously, "bearish" divergences have formed on the CCI and RSI indicators, providing additional confirmation of resumed euro declines. The first target is the 127.2% corrective level at 1.0436.
During the last reporting week, speculators opened 103 long positions and closed 14,113 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has shifted to a "bearish" outlook. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 167,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, institutional traders have reduced their holdings of the euro. This indicates the start of a new "bearish" trend or at least a significant correction on a broader scale. The dollar's primary bearish driver—expectations of FOMC policy easing—has already been priced into the market. While new reasons to sell the dollar may emerge over time, further dollar strength remains the more likely scenario. Graphical analysis also suggests the beginning of a long-term "bearish" trend. I anticipate a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair, as the latest COT data shows no indication of a shift to a "bullish" trend.
Thursday's economic calendar features only minor events. The informational backdrop is unlikely to significantly influence trader sentiment today.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations
Short positions were viable after a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662, which has since been achieved. A close below this level allowed maintaining shorts with targets at 1.0603 and 1.0532—both of which were also reached. Yesterday's rebound from 1.0603 suggested new shorts with targets at 1.0532 and 1.0420. Today, a close below 1.0511 would confirm further selling opportunities.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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