The past week was not the most successful for the dollar, and this was due to several factors at once. Separately, it is worth noting the US statistics, which, to put it mildly, disappointed market participants. Investors were most frightened by inflation, which slowed from 2.9% to 2.7%, while producer prices rose from 3.3% to 2.8%. The situation with stocks also does not cause enthusiastic feelings, as both commodity stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade, and commercial commodity stocks increased by 0.6%. And the reserves have been growing for nine months in a row. Moreover, although inflation slowed, the growth rate of retail sales slowed from 6.7% to 6.6%. The only thing that somehow pleased investors are industrial production, the growth rate of which accelerated from 4.0% to 4.9%. So, it can be said that Donald Trump fulfills part of his election promises, and industrial enterprises return to the United States.
But the American statistics was not the main driving force in the market. Rather, it only strengthened and supplemented what worried the market participants to a much greater extent. After all, in the middle of the week, the ECB and the Bank of England held meetings on monetary policy. Investors had high hopes for these meetings. Given the continuing weakening of the currencies of developing countries, it can be assumed that investors are confident that the ECB's quantitative easing program will curtail after December. The gradual withdrawal of capital from emerging markets clearly illustrates this. And the Bank of England was waiting for good news, as everyone is just discussing rumors that the UK and the European Union have reached a final agreement on Brexit. So both the pound and the single European currency only grew on the eve of the announcement of the results of both meetings. But it was these very results that became the turning point. The Bank of England puffed the first, and in the final comment, there was not a single hint of an increase in the refinancing rate in the foreseeable future. About the agreement between the UK and the European Union, as well as their positive impact on the development of the economy of the United Kingdom and the words, were not said. As if there are no agreements, and it is unclear what will happen to this Brexit for Great Britain. It pretty much strained the market participants, but after the results of the ECB board meeting became known, many investors clearly added gray hair. Mario Draghi said that the quantitative easing program will be phased out after December if conditions permit. And only this reservation fundamentally changes the situation, since just recently, the head of the ECB spoke quite different, and almost healed himself in the chest, assuring that from the new year, no quantitative easing program will be anymore and that the ECB will already talk about terms of increase in the refinancing rate. Many investors have already begun to prepare for this, withdrawing funds from developing countries, which negatively affects the rate of their currencies. And then, it turns out that the action of the quantitative easing program can also be extended, so that many, perhaps, hastened with the withdrawal of capital.
The only thing that did not allow the dollar to immediately begin to grow, so this is actually US statistics. Moreover, while Mario Draghi grieved investors, many of them drank soothing because of a sharp drop in inflation in the US. So, the dollar was able to take advantage of the situation only on Friday, when good data on industrial production came out.
It is worth noting that the European statistics are not particularly happy. In particular, the growth rate of industrial production in Europe by 2.3% was replaced by a decline of 0.1%. And in the UK, they slowed from 1.1% to 0.9%. The only thing that could please the market participants is the data on the labor market in the UK, where there was a significant acceleration in the growth rates of the average wage both with and without bonuses.
As always, the ruble stood out, which went up all week. In part, this was due to the alignment of imbalances, since under the influence of many negative external factors, it is quite heavily resold. But, in addition, the market was preparing for the meeting of the Bank of Russia's Monetary Policy Board, because last week, Elvira Nabiullina said that now the conditions are such that it is worth thinking about raising the key rate. True, no one believed that on Friday, the Bank of Russia would raise the key rate, and the words of Elvira Nabiullina only added extra power to the ruble. The fact that investors were not ready to raise the key rate from 7.25% to 7.5%, indicates the immediate strengthening of the ruble immediately after the announcement of the outcome of the meeting. However, taking into account the results of the ECB and BoE meetings, the Bank of Russia seems to have made a premature decision. Yes, and the Fed, under the impact of falling inflation may reconsider its plans for the next year. So, there is no need to fear the flight of capital from developing countries to the US and Europe.
The coming week will not be so rich in important news, at least in the US, there is almost no meaningful data. The outgoing statistical data will be of secondary importance, so that they will not be able to have a significant impact on the state of affairs in the market. Nevertheless, US statistics are the most important for the market, so it's still worth paying attention to. So, although the number of issued building permits may be reduced by 1,000, the number of construction projects to be increased by 62 thousand. Also, housing sales in the secondary market are expected to increase by 0.2%. But all this will be leveled by data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which may increase by 15 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will increase by 6 thousand, and repeated by another 9 thousand. Preliminary data on business indices activity, most likely, will show a slight increase in all indices. So, the data is interesting, but not as significant as last week. Thus, the importance of data from Europe and the UK is growing.
Inflation data in Europe already came out, and they coincided with a preliminary assessment, so they confirmed that inflation slowed from 2.1% to 2.0%. Preliminary same data on business activity indices, in contrast to the US, should show a decline in indices, although insignificant. But most importantly, it's the performances of Mario Draghi, who will be already two. From the head of the ECB, we are waiting for clarification as to what conditions he had in mind when speaking about curtailing the program of quantitative easing. Before that, it was only about the fact that at the end of December, it was being curtailed, and in the summer, they would already raise the refinancing rate. It turns out that to terminate the program of quantitative easing, certain conditions must be formed, and investors would like to understand what this means. So, it turns out that the ECB will continue to pursue a super-soft monetary policy, and if Mario Draghi does not dispel these fears, then the single European currency will again have to surrender. So by the end of the week, the euro may well fall to 1.1550.
In the UK, inflation is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.4%, which in itself is rather unpleasant. But in addition to this, the slowdown in the growth of retail sales is forecasted, from 3.5% to 2.3%, which will very much make many sad. So only the next loud statements about the achievement of agreements between Britain and the European Union will save the pound from a decline to 1.3000.
As for the ruble, investors are still digesting Friday's increase in the key rate, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the yield of government debt. Now, we need to understand whether there will be another increase by the end of the year. In principle, the Bank of Russia hinted at a similar development of events in its accompanying commentary. Naturally, this will have a positive effect on the ruble. However, industrial production is expected to slow from 3.9% to 2.5%, and the increase in the key rate may further have an even more negative impact on domestic industry. Also, the ruble depends heavily on foreign policy factors. But this week is not expected any scandals, since the US is still thinking about what new sanctions to impose. New sanctions are scheduled for the end of October, so no one will make any new statements so far. But sanctions like the sword of Damocles hanging over the ruble, so he has no special reasons for growth. But even a temporary lull in the sanction field will have a beneficial effect on the ruble, so it is worth waiting for the dollar to drop to 67 rubles.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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