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US stocks experienced one of the strongest declines last week, after the Fed decided to move closer the timeline for discussing monetary policy. Dow Jones fell 1.6%, while NASDAQ and S&P 500 slipped 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.
Still, it was not a complete downward reversal, but only a deep correction. Therefore, attempts to climb towards all-time highs may be seen in the coming days or weeks.
And following the US market, Asian markets also fell on Monday morning. Japan indices dropped 3.7%, while China indices lost 0.5%.
On the other hand, oil rose rather sharply, despite the 0.3% decrease in equity markets. Now, Brent is holding above $ 73, while WTI is above $ 71.
Perhaps, this is because Ebrahim Raisi won Iran's presidential election, and many know that he is against Westerners, which means that the controversial nuclear deal may not be renewed.
With regards to the epidemiological situation, the total number of new COVID-19 infections in the world fell to 300,000, thanks to mass vaccinations. New cases in US dropped below 5,000, while new cases in UK slipped to 9,000. But the Indian strain of coronavirus may set off another wave, so authorities are being extra cautious on everything.
Going back to the US market, S&P 500 is currently at 4.166 points, and is forecast to range around 4.120 - 4.200 points. And obviously, despite the fall in stock markets, the US economy is in excellent shape, thanks to strong support from the Fed and success in vaccinations.
Accordingly, dollar also continues to rise, so the USD index hit 92.20 points. It is expected to reach 91.80 - 92.60 points today. The main reason though is actually the change in Fed's position, more specifically on the prospect of raising rates and reducing support for the economy. Such promises future growth in yields and dollar. But a corrective pullback towards 91.80 may also happen.
For now, since dollar is in a rally, rates such as in USD/CAD continue to rise. So, from the current 1.2470, USD/CAD may fluctuate around 1.2380 - 1.2550, but a strong resistance will be met at 1.2500 - 1.2590, where a rollback and consolidation may occur.
Conclusion: The US market will move depending on the US data this week. These are orders for durable goods, weekly employment report, data on income and expenditures, and consumer price inflation.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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