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It looks very much like the British pound is having a real tantrum. And this is on the eve of the most important meetings of the Central Banks of the two countries, following which interest rates are expected to rise. Judging by the fact that the pound is falling, there may be a feeling that on Thursday the Bank of England will not raise, but lower the main interest rate. Once again, we have to note the fact that the market practically ignores both the previous and upcoming BoE increases in the main interest rate. Of course, the British Central Bank, due to a not as strong economy as the United States, cannot afford broader and faster steps in terms of raising rates. At the same time, width implies the degree or simply the size of the rate increase, and rapid steps are nothing more than the frequency or speed of monetary policy tightening. Of course, the market is such that it would always like to receive more than what is predicted or expected since this is already taken into account in the price. Nevertheless, the current situation in the British economy is such that with the hasty and not fully considered actions of the British Central Bank, there is a high risk of recession or overheating of the economy.
As a typical example of the unsatisfactory state of the UK economy, we can cite the April GDP data, which came out weaker than the forecast values of economists and generally disappointed market participants. Let me remind you that the British GDP data for April in monthly terms sank to minus 0.3%, although a small, but 0.1% increase was expected. Against this background, there was immediate talk and speculation that the Bank of England would pause the process of further raising the main interest rate. Meanwhile, some analytical departments of large commercial banks expect that the BoE will raise the rate by as much as 50 bps in the period up to November, and will do it twice at the upcoming four meetings.
By the way, it is characteristic that the volatile and speculative "Briton" did not react to the data published today on the UK labor market. This is quite unexpected, and can only signal that all investors' attention is focused on the upcoming meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England. Returning to the steps taken to reduce the level of inflation, which are interest rate increases, let me remind you once again that the Bank of England, unlike its ECB colleagues, is somehow trying to stop inflationary growth by raising the rate. The most incomprehensible is the negative attitude of investors towards the British currency. Let's see what happens on Thursday and what the rhetoric of the Bank of England will be. I do not think that it will be saturated with aggressive "hawkish" notes for the reasons already indicated above, but still, the rate will be raised again by 25 bp, there is practically no doubt about it.
Daily
Meanwhile, at yesterday's auction, as a result of another and very strong fall, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to rewrite the minimum trading values of a month ago (May 13) by 1.2154 and reached a strong technical level of 1.2100. To be more precise, Monday's trading marked lows at 1.2106 and ended at 1.2128. If things continue like this, then a meeting with the iconic round psychological and technical mark of 1.2000 is not far off. In this perspective, I do not rule out a sharp upward reversal, after which only the long lower shadows of the daily and (or) weekly candles will remain at the bottom.
It is necessary to take into account the current bearish situation for GBP/ USD, as well as negative market sentiment against the British currency. Nevertheless, the author of this article, strange as it may seem, has a bullish view of GBP/USD. You just need to wait for the moment and not miss it. And this is the most difficult, especially given the exuberant speculative nature of the sterling and its extremely high volatility. However, I do not want to mislead anyone and do not agitate for the purchase of the pound. Naturally, it is most competent, correct, and safe to open positions on the trend, and it is descending on GBP/USD. To open positions on the trend, the most promising, at least on the daily chart, looks like the price zone 1.2300-1.2350, where the important technical level is 1.2300 and the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. If the market deigns to roll back into this area, this will be a good option for opening short positions. Bearish candlestick patterns on this or smaller time intervals will become a signal to confirm sales from the selected zone.
As for the assumption of a possible sharp reversal of the pound upwards and the possibility of buying a Briton, it is still not worth catching a falling knife, especially for novice traders. It is safest and technically reasonable to wait for the bullish reversal patterns of candle analysis on this, or even better on the weekly chart, and only after that open buy deals. For experienced traders and for those who allow the deposit to enter the market against the current movement, and this requires a large stop, as well as awareness and willingness to incur losses, I recommend taking a closer look at the strong technical price zones 1.2100-1.2070 and 1.2010-1.1970. But it is still better to wait for reversal signals or catch changes in the mood of the bidders, which may be affected by the upcoming meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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