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The relatively modest weakening of dollar is somewhat surprising as US inflation slowed more than expected. It fell from 6.0% to 5.0%, instead of to the projected 5.2%. With such a sharp decline in inflation, the movement should have been more impressive.
Nevertheless, the growth of euro and pound halted due to the contents of the Fed minutes, which hinted that there could be another rate hike. This is nothing new as almost all representatives openly stated the need to increase rates until inflation drops lower during their speeches before the last Fed meeting. However, the market behaved as if it were hearing about this for the first time.
In fact, what the minutes talked about is the possibility of another increase in the case of continued high growth rates of consumer prices. But now, it is clear that the numbers are already slowing down faster than expected, so it is likely that the Fed will no longer raise interest rates.
Inflation (United States):
Still, euro and pound have an opportunity to continue growth today, especially if industrial production in the UK slows down from -4.3% to -4.0%.
Industrial production (UK):
Meanwhile, an acceleration of growth may be seen in the Euro area, from 0.9% to 1.2%. This, of course, is a much more positive development.
Industrial production (Europe):
EUR/USD hit the level of 1.1000, which is the local high of the medium-term trend. If the pair continues to be overbought, along with pressure from the resistance level, there could be a pullback. But if the price stays above the level, the upward trend will continue.
In GBP/USD, there was a rise to 1.2500, but considering that the pair is overbought and there is pressure from the resistance level, a pullback or stagnation is possible. The upward trend will prolong only if the price stays above 1.2500 for the whole day.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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