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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement. Only one report on industrial production in the Eurozone was published throughout the day, which turned out better than expected. This suggested a strengthening of the euro, but instead, we saw another decline in the exchange rate. From our perspective, this is quite logical. The euro had been rising for too long, and the market had ignored all the negative factors for the euro for too long. The US dollar is priced much lower than it should be. That's why we now witness a three-week decline in the pair without a correction. The macroeconomic background has nothing to do with this. Tomorrow, the European Central Bank may lower rates for the third time, which will be more than the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The euro could well continue to fall. The descending trendline is relatively formal, but there's no reason to expect an upward correction if the price doesn't break above it.
On Tuesday, the 5-minute time frame (TF) had one buy signal, but volatility was again very low, and the trend of recent weeks has been downward. Therefore, thinking multiple times before opening buy positions when the pair fell for three weeks was wise. Today, selling the pair would be the most logical option if the price consolidates below the 1.0888-1.0896 area, as short positions remain the most sensible choice.
The EUR/USD pair has moved significantly toward a new downtrend in the hourly time frame. Unfortunately, similar dollar sales may resume in the medium term, as no one knows how long the market will continue to factor in the Fed's monetary policy easing. However, the downward trend is still present on the hourly TF. A further decline in the euro can be expected, even without a correction, as it remains heavily overbought. However, a correction would make the chart look more balanced.
On Wednesday, trading can be based on the 1.0888-1.0896 area. Movements will likely be weak again, so high profits shouldn't be expected.
On the 5-minute TF, you should consider the following levels: 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1140, and 1.1189-1.1191. On Wednesday, the only significant event to watch is ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech late in the evening. However, since the ECB meeting will be held tomorrow, it's unlikely that Lagarde will disclose much today.
Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.
Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.
Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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