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On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved more sideways than up or down. With no macroeconomic or fundamental news, the low volatility was to be expected. The first U.S. labor market data will be released today, so an increase in volatility can be anticipated. The price barely broke through the trendline, suggesting a possible rise in the euro. However, given the significant amount of important reports from the EU and the U.S. this week, the dollar could quickly resume its growth, pushing the pair downward. Therefore, macroeconomic releases should be prioritized over technical signals. A correction may be approaching, but this doesn't mean it must happen immediately without alternatives.
In the 5-minute time frame, one buy signal was formed on Monday when the price surpassed the 1.0797-1.0804 area. However, due to very low volatility, it wasn't profitable. Nevertheless, the price did not fall below this area, so holding long positions is still feasible.
In the hourly time frame, EUR/USD could start a correction after a month-long decline. There are at least some reasons for a potential rise in the euro. We believe the pair may begin an upward correction, though it's unlikely to be strong without supportive news. In the medium term, we still expect a downward trend.
For Tuesday, novice traders may trade from the 1.0797-1.0804 area again. If the price consolidates below it, this could be a good opportunity for new sales. Otherwise, holding yesterday's buy positions is still an option.
In the 5-minute time frame, focus on the levels 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, and 1.1132-1.1140. No significant events are scheduled for the EU on Tuesday, but in the U.S., the JOLTs report on job openings will be released. While it's not the most significant labor market report, it still holds considerable importance.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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