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30.10.202407:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on October 30? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Many important macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, and all of them are important. Germany will release data on unemployment, inflation, and GDP. The Eurozone will publish its GDP figures, and the U.S. will release GDP data alongside the ADP report on private-sector employment. Today promises to be far from boring. It's challenging to expect strong support for the euro from European reports since GDP growth is unlikely to exceed forecasts, Germany's unemployment rate is not the most impactful metric, and a slight acceleration in German inflation is unlikely to affect the European Central Bank's plans. However, the U.S. reports in the afternoon could strongly influence market sentiment. Increased volatility can be anticipated today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The only notable fundamental event on Wednesday is the speech by ECB's Isabel Schnabel. However, as mentioned, the ECB's strategy is clear: monetary policy easing will continue, and in December, rates are expected to decrease by another 0.25%. Therefore, it's unlikely that Schnabel will provide any groundbreaking information today. In any case, the market will closely watch the macroeconomic data.

General Conclusions:

The movement of both currency pairs will be entirely dependent on the macroeconomic backdrop for the third trading day of the week, making it difficult to predict outcomes in advance. We believe the euro is unlikely to gain support from European data, but U.S. reports could boost if they are similar to yesterday's JOLTs report. Thus, the euro and the pound are looking to the U.S. for potential support.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
7. After the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2024

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