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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2904 level as a point for market entry decisions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to review what happened. The breakout and retest of 1.2904 provided an excellent entry point for buying the pound, which led to a 15-point rise before buyers lost momentum. The technical outlook was slightly revised for the second half of the day.
To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:U.S. unemployment and nonfarm payroll data will direct the market in the second half of the day; these figures will be key. Data exceeding economist forecasts could prompt another sell-off of the pound and push the pair to new monthly lows, creating opportunities. If the data meets expectations, the 1.2875 level may become a support point for entry. A false breakout there would indicate a suitable long entry for a recovery toward 1.2932. A breakout and retest of 1.2932 will lead to a new long entry, with the next target at 1.2961. The ultimate target would be the 1.2996 level, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD declines and bulls show no interest at 1.2875, the bearish market will likely resume, pushing the pair toward the next support at 1.2845, a new monthly low. Only a false breakout there would justify opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from 1.2800, targeting a 30-35 point short-term correction within the day.
To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:Sellers are holding off, as yesterday's sell-off reduced interest in taking more aggressive action at the current lows. If the pair rises following the data, bears should appear again around the nearest resistance at 1.2932. A false breakout there would offer a suitable selling opportunity, targeting a decline toward support at 1.2875, sustaining the bearish trend. A breakout and retest of this range from below would challenge buyers, potentially triggering stop-loss orders and clearing the way to 1.2845. The ultimate target would be the 1.2800 level, where I plan to take profits. Testing this level would further confirm the bearish market. If GBP/USD rises and bears are absent at 1.2932 amid weak U.S. statistics, buyers may try to recover some of yesterday's losses. Moving averages also favor sellers in this scenario. Sellers may then retreat to resistance at 1.2961, where I would only sell after a false breakout. If no decline occurs there, I'll look to open shorts on a rebound at 1.2996, expecting a 30-35 point short-term correction within the day.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report dated October 22 showed a significant reduction in long positions and a slight decrease in short positions. However, the decline in buyers did not significantly affect market positioning, as they still outnumber sellers by nearly two and a half times. There's no major UK data this week, and given that British policymakers have said all they can, I expect the pound to continue recovering against the dollar. Much will depend on U.S. GDP and labor market data, so keep an eye on these figures. The latest COT report shows long non-commercial positions fell by 11,320 to 140,603, while short non-commercial positions dropped by only 94 to 66,072. The gap between long and short positions rose by 1,181.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages:
The pair is trading near the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating market indecision.
Note: The moving average periods and prices are based on the author's observation on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the typical D1 daily moving averages.
Bollinger Bands:
In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.2870 will act as support.
Indicator Descriptions:
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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