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On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed an upward movement, just as we anticipated. The macroeconomic background on Monday was relatively weak, but that alone didn't trigger the dollar's decline. On Friday, the U.S. released a series of disappointing reports on the labor market and business activity, yet the dollar somehow managed to appreciate. Thus, on Monday, we observed a "restoration of fair value." Overall, the upward correction has started (as we predicted) and continues. This week, much will depend on the Federal Reserve's meeting and the U.S. central bank's signals to the public. It's also important to remember that the U.S. presidential elections start today, which could significantly increase volatility. The correction might continue, but the fundamental background will be highly influential this week.
Two trade signals were generated in the 5-minute timeframe on Monday. First, the pair consolidated above the 1.0888-1.0896 area and then below it. In both cases, the price failed to move even 20 pips in the expected direction. The main upward movement on Monday occurred during overnight trading and a gap at market open.
The EUR/USD pair continues its correction on the hourly time frame after a month-long decline. At the very least, some grounds exist for the euro to rise. The correction is unlikely to be strong, as it constantly needs euro-supportive news. Even then, the news won't always be enough, as the market now leans toward dollar purchases.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider trading within the 1.0888-1.0896 area. The price has consolidated below it, so a further decline may continue.
On the 5-minute time frame, consider the levels 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, and 1.1132-1.1140. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech in the European Union and the U.S. ISM Services PMI are scheduled for Tuesday. We believe that the ISM index is the most crucial event today. If it falls short of forecasts, it could trigger another dollar decline.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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