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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair traded upward, which is logical considering the correction that began. However, during the night, it plunged 200 pips in just a couple of hours. We warned that this week could bring sharp moves in both directions, and we saw one of these today. The U.S. held its presidential election overnight, and the market likely reacted to interim results, which indicated that Donald Trump was in the lead. Predicting this movement was impossible. But again, we did caution that intense, sharp moves were possible. For the rest of the week, absolutely any movement is possible. If there is no macroeconomic data today, tomorrow brings the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election results may be announced today or tomorrow. Thus, the pair could well move back up by 200 pips.
Two signals were formed in the 5-minute time frame on Tuesday. First, the pair broke through the 1.0888-1.0896 area, then bounced from the 1.0940 level. Novice traders could have made a small profit from these two trades, though we are not even considering the overnight moves of the pair. Yes, the price covered a week's distance in a few hours, but on what basis could such a sharp increase in the dollar have been expected?
In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair may continue correcting after a month of declines, as last night's drop has little to do with "logical progression." We believe the correction will unlikely be strong, requiring constant news supporting the euro. Even then, the euro may not always benefit since the market is now inclined to buy the dollar. The correction might even already be over.
For Wednesday, we're not even sure what to advise beginners. The price could continue its volatile swings, so trying trades at any level may be feasible. But volatility could again be very high.
On the 5-minute time frame, consider levels 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1140. No significant events except Christine Lagarde's speech are scheduled for Wednesday in the U.S. or Eurozone. However, information on the U.S. elections will continue to come in, so volatile price swings may persist.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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