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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test 1.2875 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero level, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound—especially as it was trading near its monthly low. Today, pressure on the pair could increase further following the UK labor market data—weak reports and a rising unemployment rate pressure the pound and the Bank of England. Poor figures on jobless claims and reduced average earnings growth in the UK are also bad signs for a potential correction in GBP/USD. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.2837 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2886 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.2886, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction. Counting on a significant rise in the pound today is unlikely, even with positive UK labor market data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2802 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.2837 and 1.2886 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking through the 1.2802 level (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2765, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction. Selling the pound is viable but should be done at higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the pair tests the 1.2837 level twice consecutively. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.2802 and 1.2765 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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