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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.2683 level occurred when the MACD indicator was already well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I avoided buying the pound. A correction occurred, but statements from the Fed Chair quickly brought pressure back onto the pair as it became clear there was no rush to lower interest rates in the U.S., especially after the recent inflation data.
Today, only solid numbers regarding the UK's Q3 GDP, industrial production, and manufacturing output could allow the pound to continue its upward correction. Otherwise, it's better to keep selling. For intraday strategies, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at 1.2683 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2734 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2734, I plan to exit the purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect the pound to rise today only if there are strong economic reports. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2659 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth toward the 1.2683 and 1.2734 levels can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below the 1.2659 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2613, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal of 20–25 pips. Selling the pound is advisable but from as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2683 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the 1.2659 and 1.2613 levels can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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