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The GBP/USD pair didn't even attempt to correct on Friday. As noted, two macroeconomic indicators were released from the US, with retail sales being more influential for the market. The UK also published two reports: Q3 GDP grew by 0.1% in the second estimate, down from 0.2% in the initial estimate—a negative factor. Industrial production declined, as usual, and more than traders had expected. Three out of four reports supported the US dollar, which continues to rise effortlessly, even without macroeconomic support. We maintain our view that the USD will appreciate further, as we've been highlighting for two months. Since the beginning of the year, we pointed out the illogical rise of the euro and the pound, predicting the market would rebalance these pairs to fair value. That process is now underway.
On the 5-minute chart, two sell signals were formed near the 1.2680-1.2685 area. Novice traders could have executed these trades. Toward the end of the day, the price broke through the 1.2633 level, allowing short trades to remain open. While volatility wasn't the highest on Friday, short positions yielded a profit of 20–30 pips.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory. We fully support the pound's decline in the medium term, as it seems to be the only logical outcome. The pound may attempt another correction soon, but such a move would require substantial support. Neither Powell on Thursday nor UK macroeconomic data on Friday provided such support. Everything points to further declines for the pound.
On Monday, novice traders can anticipate a continuation of the downtrend since the price has breached another support level at 1.2633.
You can trade using the following levels: 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2754, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993. On Monday, there will be no macroeconomic or fundamental background in the UK or the US. However, this doesn't mean the pound cannot continue falling. The market is currently set on buying the dollar, so another decline in the pair could occur even without corresponding news or data.
Support and Resistance Levels: Target levels for opening or closing positions. Take Profit orders can also be set here.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line that serve as supplementary trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can strongly influence price movements. During their release, trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend.
Forex beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are critical for long-term success in trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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