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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2630 level as a key entry point. Let us review the 5-minute chart to examine what occurred. Although the pair declined, it did not reach the level or form a false breakout. As a result, no trades were executed. I have revised the technical outlook for the second half of the day.
Attempts by bears to re-enter the market, despite a lack of UK statistics, have been countered by strong demand for the pound. With no significant statistics expected in the second half of the day and US exchanges closed for Thanksgiving, I do not anticipate much action during the US session.
If GBP/USD declines, I will act after a false breakout forms near the new support at 1.2637, established during yesterday's session. The initial target will be resistance at 1.2676, which the pair has yet to break above. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range would confirm a new entry point for long positions, with a target of 1.2709. The ultimate goal would be the 1.2738 zone, where I plan to take profits.
If GBP/USD falls and buyers remain inactive around 1.2637, bears may extend the pair's decline, erasing yesterday's gains. Only a false breakout near 1.2600 would justify opening long positions. Additionally, I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.2564 low, targeting a 30–35 point upward correction.
Pressure on the pound could return at any moment—especially after a false breakout near 1.2676. Such a scenario would provide an entry point for selling, with a target of 1.2637, where the moving averages currently favor the bulls. A breakout and subsequent retest from below would trigger stop orders, opening the path toward 1.2600. The ultimate goal would be the 1.2564 level, where I plan to take profits.
If GBP/USD rises further and sellers fail to act around 1.2676, buyers will have a good chance to extend the correction. Bears will likely retreat to the resistance at 1.2709. I will sell there only after a failed consolidation. If no downward movement occurs at this level, I will look for short positions on a rebound from 1.2738, aiming for a 30–35 point downward correction.
The November 19 COT report showed a reduction in both long and short positions. The current figures reflect broader market conditions, but the Bank of England's clear decision to halt further rate cuts has not yet been fully priced in. This contrasts with government efforts to sustain economic growth. Recent PMI data suggests such efforts may face significant challenges.
According to the latest COT report, long non-commercial positions decreased by 18,279 to 101,713, while short non-commercial positions fell by 2,544 to 61,398. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions widened by 2,182.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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