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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed little interest in active movements. Many had anticipated high volatility and trending movements this week, but nothing has materialized as most of the week has passed. This serves as another reminder of a truth well-known to experienced traders: in the market, nothing is certain. Simply put, even if a day is packed with events like Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell's speeches and major macroeconomic reports, this doesn't guarantee strong, trending movements. The same uncertainty applies to the direction of movements. Even if all factors point south, the price can move in the opposite direction as quickly as possible. This happens because the exchange rate of any pair is determined purely by the balance of supply and demand, and market makers, with their large liquidity volumes, can manipulate prices.
Thus, a trader's job involves identifying high-probability patterns and signals that might work out. A trader's profitability is determined by performance over the long run. Returning to this week, the euro remains stationary, maintaining its local and global downtrends. For most of Wednesday, the price traded below the moving average, suggesting that further decline remains more likely. At this point, even local fundamentals and macroeconomics have minimal influence on the euro and dollar outlook. The current situation is no different from one or three months ago.
For two years, the market focused solely on pricing in the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy easing. Now, it's processing other factors that primarily favor the US dollar. So, even if an isolated ISM report underperforms, what difference does it make? What impact can comments from Christine Lagarde or Jerome Powell have when the factors driving the sale of the US dollar have already been priced in? If the 16-year downtrend persists and the euro is likely to fall below parity with the dollar in 2025, what's left to debate?
As a result, this week's events are likely to have only a local impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate. A correction may continue, but we see the euro steadily drifting downward so far. The CCI indicator has repeatedly entered oversold territory and drawn numerous bullish divergences, yet we've only observed a modest retracement. What does this tell us? From our perspective, it reinforces the view that the decline will continue over time. This is precisely what we expect.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days, as of December 5, is 68 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move from 1.0455 to 1.0591 on Thursday. The higher linear regression channel points downward, indicating that the global downtrend remains intact. The CCI indicator has repeatedly entered the oversold area, triggering an upward correction that is still ongoing.
The EUR/USD pair may resume its downward trend. In recent months, we have consistently emphasized expectations for a continued decline in the euro over the medium term, fully supporting the overall bearish trend. There is a high likelihood that the market has priced in most or all of the future Fed rate cuts. If this is the case, the dollar still lacks reasons for a medium-term decline, although such reasons have been sparse.
If the price remains below the moving average line, short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.0376 and 1.0254. If the price consolidates above the moving average, long positions may be considered for "pure" technical trading, with targets at 1.0620 and 1.0695. However, we do not recommend long positions due to the bearish outlook.
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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