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26.12.202414:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

Due to low volatility, the outlined price levels were not reached, preventing the implementation of my trading strategies. The U.S. initial jobless claims data will be the primary focus for traders in the second half of the day. This figure serves as a secondary indicator of the labor market's health and the economy overall. Released every Thursday, it captures traders' and analysts' attention since significant changes in the numbers can signal employment trends and consumer confidence levels.

• An increase in claims might indicate worsening economic conditions, potentially influencing the dollar negatively.
• A decrease in claims, on the other hand, could be seen as a positive sign, boosting confidence in the U.S. economy and supporting the dollar.

Unemployment data is critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Changes in rate expectations, based on the data, can influence currency and other asset markets. Thus, today's initial jobless claims will be a key focus for traders awaiting clearer signals about the economic direction.

For intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy USD/JPY at 157.48 (green line on the chart) with a target of 157.81 (thicker green line on the chart). Exit the market at 157.81 and consider opening sell positions for a 30-35 point retracement. Note: Expect pair growth only within the range of the channel.

Important: Ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise before buying.

Scenario #2:

I plan to buy USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of 157.31, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may lead to a reversal. Expected targets are 157.48 and 157.81.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after 157.31 (red line on the chart) is reached, targeting 157.00. Exit the market at 157.00 and consider buying immediately for a 20-25 point retracement.

Important: Ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline before selling.

Scenario #2:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of 157.48, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a reversal. Expected downward targets are 157.31 and 157.00.

Chart Key:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Target price to place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Target price to place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Tips for Beginner Forex Traders:

Be cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during major fundamental report releases to prevent being caught in sharp price swings. Always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes.

Stick to a clear trading plan like the one outlined above for success. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market situations is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2024

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