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The first test of the 157.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark. Within the context of the emerging uptrend, this confirmed that entering a buy position for the dollar was a correct decision. Consequently, the pair reached the target level of 158.35, from which I immediately opened sell positions on the rebound.
Yesterday's data on changes in the monetary base did not impact the dollar's direction against the Japanese yen, allowing trading to remain within a channel that still has strong potential for sustained dollar growth. Today, however, consumer confidence data from Japan was disappointing, showing a decline that reflects a more pessimistic outlook among residents regarding future economic developments. Economists had expected more positive figures, which had raised hopes for a quick exit from the current economic stagnation. Despite these discouraging results, traders' reactions were relatively calm. They seem to be focusing on other factors driving the market, such as global economic trends and shifts in monetary policy from major central banks.
Today, the Federal Reserve will publish its meeting minutes. Additionally, the recent decline in consumer confidence is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the economy. As a result, traders will keep looking for opportunities, as they believe that more important events on the horizon could change the overall market landscape.
I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 158.29 (green line on the chart) with a target of 159.07 (thicker green line). Around 159.07, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction from the level. The best approach is to bet on further growth in the pair and buy during corrections. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.73 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 158.29 and 159.07 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.73 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.07, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Significant pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 158.29 price level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 157.73 and 157.07 can be expected.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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