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The 155.96 price level was tested when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero line, confirming a good entry point for buying the dollar. Consequently, the pair increased by 30 pips.
At the beginning of the U.S. session yesterday, dollar buyers tried to build momentum and achieved a small upward correction. However, pressure on the USD/JPY pair resumed shortly after. Weak retail sales data added to the pressure on the dollar, and with the increasing likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates soon, traders felt compelled to return to buying the yen today. During the Asian session, the weekly low was updated. It is likely that pressure on the pair will continue, so it is advisable to avoid rushing into purchases at current levels. The higher the pair rises, the greater the chance that major sellers will re-enter the market, anticipating more decisive actions from the Japanese central bank.
For intraday strategies, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 155.56 (green line on the chart) with a target of 156.13 (thicker green line). Around 156.13, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips downward from the level. Important! Be careful when buying, as pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise before buying.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 155.24 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 155.56 and 156.13 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 155.24 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.72, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for 20–25 pips upward from the level. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 155.56 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.24 and 154.72 can be expected.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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