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The test of the 152.46 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for selling the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair declined by over 40 pips.
Weak U.S. economic data was the primary reason behind the dollar's decline last Friday. Today's announcement of strong Japanese GDP growth at 0.7%, compared to the forecast of 0.3%, triggered purchases of the yen and further weakened the dollar. Investors, encouraged by the prospects of a Bank of Japan rate hike, are actively shifting away from dollar assets in favor of the yen, which currently appears to be a more profitable and stable investment.
This trend is further reinforced by global uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs imposed on several countries. Japan, long considered a "safe haven," is once again attracting capital. The weaker dollar is also putting additional pressure on American companies, making exports more challenging and reducing their competitiveness in the global market.
I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's intraday strategy.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches 151.81 (green line on the chart), with a target of 152.40 (thicker green line). At 152.40, I plan to exit long positions and immediately open short positions, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback from this level. Buying the pair on corrections and deep pullbacks in USD/JPY is best. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 151.39 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth towards 151.81 and 152.40 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below 151.39 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 150.72, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip rebound. Downward pressure on the pair could return any time during the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of the 151.81 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards 151.39 and 150.72 is expected.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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