30.08.201911:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Precious metals at risk of near-term top

Spot gold weakened to near $1,520 per ounce in early New York on Thursday on a combination of dollar strength and slightly increased optimism over US-China trade developments.

There was solid support at lower levels at near $1,525 on Friday. The underlying tone remains impressive, especially as the EUR/USD decline to near 2-year lows is a significant negative gold factor. Silver secured support close to $18.00 per ounce and advanced to near $18.40 on Friday.

Position adjustment will be an important element on Friday, especially given month-end pressures with currency-market volatility transferring across into choppy precious metals trading.

Trade rhetoric will continue to be watched closely after a slightly more positive stance seen from US and China officials on Thursday. Conciliatory rhetoric from President Trump would tend to underpin risk appetite and curb defensive gold demand, especially if bilateral talks take place next week as scheduled.

Precious metals are likely to remain resilient amid an underlying lack of confidence across major currencies.

Markets will be monitoring closely the political situation in Hong Kong amid an increase in tensions over the past 24 hours. Two prominent pro-democracy protesters have been arrested in Hong Kong and there here have also been reports that the proposal to withdraw the controversial extradition Bill was rejected at high levels within the Chinese government. Any increase in tensions over the weekend would trigger a spike higher in gold.

CFTC data needs to be monitored closely late on Friday, especially as long, non-commercial positions are close to record highs. A further increase in long positions would reinforce concerns over the threat of a sharp retracement in gold.

Net short-term risks indicate slightly better value in fading precious metals gains and look for better levels to buy for longer-term moves higher.