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The EUR/USD pair is starting the new week with a positive movement. The rise is supported by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, although it lacks bullish confidence. Ahead of key macroeconomic data releases for the U.S. this week and the decisive European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, traders are reluctant to make aggressive bets.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be published on Wednesday, followed by monthly retail sales data and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Additionally, on Thursday, the ECB plans to announce its decision on monetary policy.
The prospects of further tightening of the Federal Reserve's policy may help the dollar and restrain the further rise of the EUR/USD pair. However, comments from several Federal Reserve representatives last week guaranteed that the Fed would not raise interest rates again in September. This has led to uncertainty among traders in making short-term position decisions. Furthermore, optimistic macroeconomic data from the U.S. published last week confirmed the resilience of the economy and the theory of higher interest rates in the long term.
Moreover, according to The Wall Street Journal, some officials still prefer to talk about rate hikes, citing that they may lower them later. This, in turn, continues to support the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields and favors USD bulls.
In addition to this, the uncertainty regarding the ECB's future rate hikes is contributing to limiting the EUR/USD pair. Analysts still have differing opinions about whether the ECB will raise rates for the 10th consecutive time amid high inflation or pause their historical tightening cycle due to worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone.
Therefore, before actively engaging in buying euros, it is advisable to await news that confirms these purchases.
For now, there are no fundamental economic confirmations for buying this pair.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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