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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3232 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 pips, falling just short of the target level at 1.3304. The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by half a percentage point led to a bullish spike in the pound, but then pressure on the pair returned, as the prospects for further rate cuts in the U.S. this year are now in doubt. Today, we await the Bank of England's decision on the key interest rate. It is almost certain that rates will remain unchanged, as the central bank eased policy only a month ago, and the desired effect has yet to materialize. For this reason, the pound may weaken even further. The summary of the monetary policy will also be the focus of traders' attention. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3237 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3288 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3288, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level). A rise in the pound is possible, but it looks rather doubtful. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3198 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3237 and 1.3288.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the 1.3198 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3147 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Selling the pound is possible after a failed attempt to consolidate near the daily high and a dovish stance from the BoE. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3237 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3198 and 1.3147 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
