11.11.202412:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, amid generally bullish sentiment toward the US dollar, gold prices remain under moderate selling pressure for the second consecutive day. Optimism surrounding Donald Trump's anticipated expansionary policies continues to support the US dollar index, which reached a four-month high last week. This strength in the dollar is seen as a key factor undermining gold.

Many speculate that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all US imports could trigger a new wave of inflation. This development would likely limit the Federal Reserve's capacity for aggressive monetary easing, sustaining elevated US Treasury yields and reducing investment in the non-yielding yellow metal. However, cautious market sentiment may help limit further losses in gold.

Fundamental Outlook:

Traders are advised to exercise caution ahead of key US consumer inflation data and speeches by influential FOMC members, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled later this week. These events could help limit further declines in gold prices. Traders should carefully position for either a continuation of the recent sharp pullback from the $2800 psychological level or a reversal toward the all-time high set on October 31.

Technical Outlook:

Further declines in gold are likely to find support near the $2660 level, followed by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2644. A sustained drop below last week's swing low near $2640 could trigger fresh bearish momentum. With daily momentum indicators weakening, gold may accelerate its fall toward the October low of $2603.

On the other hand, if gold gains momentum above the $2700 psychological level, resistance is expected at $2710, followed by the supply zone at $2740. Sustained strength beyond this level would signal that the corrective pullback is over, potentially pushing the price above resistance at $2750 toward the all-time high set on October 31.