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02.12.202406:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 02.12.2024

Despite the acceleration of annual inflation in the Eurozone from 2.0% to 2.3%, the euro failed to rise and even weakened. Although the scale of the decline was limited, it still seems illogical. The issue is that most market participants focus on the data highlighted by the media, which tends to emphasize monthly figures rather than annual ones. As it turns out, while annual inflation increased, consumer prices in monthly terms decreased by 0.3%.

Exchange Rates 02.12.2024 analysis

From the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, annual data holds more significance, as it is less prone to distortions caused by seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, due to these seasonal factors, monthly data can appear quite odd, making conclusions based on them fundamentally flawed. It's worth noting that all reports and meeting minutes from key central banks refer specifically to annual inflation, not monthly changes. Thus, the European Central Bank's decisions will be based on accelerating annual inflation to 2.3%, not the 0.3% monthly price decline. However, the media currently gives the impression that the ECB might continue to lower interest rates.

This perception is likely to strengthen further, supported by labor market data. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to rise from 6.3% to 6.4%. Therefore, the euro may experience a slight further decline.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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Hot forecast
Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 10, 2024
Market consolidation may transition into stagnation until tomorrow's U.S. inflation data release.
Autor: Din Leo
23:52 2024-12-09 UTC--5
7318
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Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 9, 2024
Despite the rise in unemployment, investors were pleasantly surprised by the non-farm payrolls data, suggesting that the market might now...
Autor: Din Leo
00:27 2024-12-09 UTC--5
7933
Hot forecast
Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2024
Despite published macroeconomic data, the euro strengthened noticeably, driven exclusively by shifting expectations about the content of upcoming reports.
Autor: Din Leo
00:31 2024-12-06 UTC--5
7993
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