04.04.202511:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Old market rules broken

Someone is not telling the truth. Donald Trump insists that everything is going well and that the markets will flourish. But the S&P 500 just posted its worst 10-week start after Trump's inauguration since 2001, wiping out $3 trillion in market capitalization. Investors are losing faith in the Republican leader, while Fitch Ratings warns that tariffs are changing the rules of the game. We have entered an entirely new macro landscape. The winning bet of "buy the dip" no longer works.

Following the White House's sweeping import tariffs, the average US tariff rate has jumped from 2.2% to over 20%, marking the sharpest increase since the 1950s. Back then, it triggered a recession. History risks repeating itself. UBS estimates that GDP cloud shrink by 2 percentage points in 2025. Nomura forecasts modest growth of just 0.6%, while Barclays offers a slightly brighter view of a 0.1% contraction. Notably, when Trump took office, the economy was growing at 2.8%. Unsurprisingly, investors are selling dollars and stocks, abandoning the notion of American exceptionalism.

S&P 500 performance in absolute and percentage terms

The S&P 500 has entered correction territory again, although full-blown recessions have historically seen losses of 20% or more — still a long way off. Nonetheless, the index's downward trajectory signals recession risks ahead. Markets are currently pricing in a 48% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months, up from 38% before the White House tariff announcement on April 2, according to Polymarket.

UBS Global Wealth Management downgraded US equities to "neutral" from "most favored" and cut its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 5,800 from 6,400, citing tariff-induced volatility. Hedge funds dumped stocks in March at the fastest pace in 12 years, according to Goldman Sachs.

Wall Street analysts have trimmed their 2025 earnings growth forecasts for US corporates to 9.5% from 13% in January. Despite falling P/E multiples, the current valuation of the S&P 500 at 20 times earnings still looks stretched relative to historical norms.

Global equities vs. bond yields

The White House's tariff blitz has not just rocked US markets — global equities are also reeling. Risk aversion has pushed up the correlation between MSCI's global index and 10-year US Treasury yields. At the same time, US equities are underperforming their international peers, putting pressure on the US dollar.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is still in a correction from its broader uptrend. Both downside targets at 5,500 and 5,400 were hit on short positions. While a brief rebound in the broad index is possible, as long as it trades below 5,500, the bias remains towards selling.