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Gold loves uncertainty but can't stand high interest rates. In this regard, the rally of XAUUSD against the background of the Fed's intention to bring the cost of borrowing to 5.25% looks paradoxical. Moreover, 2023 is unlikely to bring as many shocks as the outgoing 2022. Investors want to believe in the best, in the end of the armed conflict in Ukraine, in a soft landing of the global economy. Alas, it doesn't always work out the way we want. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Uncertainty has allowed the precious metal to soar twice in the past three years above the psychologically important level of $2,000 an ounce. The panic in the financial markets due to the pandemic and the subsequent recession allowed gold to set an all-time high in 2020. In 2022, due to the outbreak of hostilities in Eastern Europe, the analyzed asset once again felt like a king, but its joy was short-lived. The tightening of the Fed's monetary policy has become a verdict for the bulls on XAUUSD.
Dynamics of gold
The inability to generate income is the curse of gold. It falls when real rates on U.S. Treasury bonds rise, which seemed logical against the background of the aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed. This increases the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal, which resulted in a continuous outflow of capital from specialized exchange-traded funds for at least seven months in a row.
But by year's end, gold had risen from the ashes, thanks to the intention of Jerome Powell and his colleagues to slow the rate of increase in the federal funds rate. This weakened the dollar and gave hope for a "dovish" reversal of the Federal Reserve in 2023. The markets are expecting at least a 50 bps cut in the federal funds rate in the second half of next year, driving the XAUUSD quotes higher.
Of course, investors can be wrong. According to Goldman Sachs, the greatest effect of the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy is manifested six months after its start. This can explain the significant slowdown in U.S. inflation in October–November. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the monetary restriction is subsequently reduced, consumer prices may rise again, forcing the central bank to raise the cost of borrowing above the 5.1% forecast by the FOMC. If this happens, the precious metal will fall into a wave of sales.
The impact of the Fed's monetary restriction on the U.S. economy
However, for now it is shining with a new luster. The Bank of Japan's verdict to expand the target range for bond yields from +/-0.25% to +/-0.5% sowed new uncertainty in financial markets. And due to this uncertainty, as we know, gold is strengthening.
Technically, on the precious metal's daily chart, a rebound from the fair value of $1,785 per ounce provoked a new round of rally. This indicates the seriousness of the intentions of the bulls. If they manage to storm the resistance at $1,821, the upward trend will continue. We will get a new entry point for long positions.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
