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According to the latest weekly gold survey, opinions among investors and analysts have diverged. Main Street remains stable with a generally balanced bullish posture, while analysts clearly show a prevailing majority with a bullish forecast for the current week.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, is among those expecting further gold growth this week.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, shares the same sentiment as Day. From his perspective, after the Consumer Price Index report, the doors for dollar bulls were opened. However, considering the reaction to Austan Goolsbee's comment that they are not thrilled with one inflation indicator, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will not be able to maintain a hawkish stance for too long. This is positive for gold.
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, holds an opposing view on the likely Fed reaction to positive economic data.
Bob Haberkorn, Senior Commodities Broker at RJO Futures, believes that Fed speakers will remain consistent in their statements. If any of them hints at a rate cut sooner or later, it will be extremely beneficial for gold bulls. Considering the current interest rates, the fact that gold is holding at the $2,000 level is quite impressive. This only underscores the fear that exists in the world at the moment and triggers a strong demand for gold assets.
Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, Darin Newsom, believes the technical picture will be consistently bullish this week. Initial resistance may be at the recent high of $2,045.00, with further growth expected.
According to Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, a continuation of the dollar's decline is expected since the interest rate correction has ended. In his opinion, spot gold may trade around $2,050 this week.
The recent gold survey was participated by 11 analysts. Eight experts, or 73%, anticipate price increases this week, while only one analyst, representing 9%, predicts a decline, and two, or 18%, believe prices will trade sideways.
In the online survey with 203 votes, Main Street maintained the same basic distribution of opinions as last week. 89 retail investors, constituting 43%, expect price increases. Another 52, or 26%, anticipate a decline, while 63 respondents, or 31%, remained neutral.
Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said gold's movement is more related to the current risk aversion than people's fear. He notes that profit-taking in risk markets is beneficial for gold. Despite the importance of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which will be published this week, markets usually do not react much to it. PCE is generally considered as additional confirmation.
As the key inflation indicator for the Fed, the PCE Price Index on Thursday will be the main publication this week. Besides inflation data, markets will also watch for new home sales on Monday, durable goods orders, and consumer confidence on Tuesday. On Wednesday, attention will turn to the preliminary report on U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter. Thursday will see data on home sales, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. All these news events will add volatility to the markets.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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