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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair performed another rebound from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.0892), turning in favor of the US dollar and consolidating below the ascending trend channel. Thus, the bears have taken the initiative in the market and are now beginning to form a trend. The pair consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0837, below the support zone of 1.0785–1.0797, and by Monday afternoon, it had reached the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0748). A rebound from this level will favor the EU currency and lead to some growth towards the 1.0785–1.0797 zone. Securing the pair below the 1.0748 level will increase the likelihood of further decline to the 23.6% level at 1.0692.
The wave situation remains clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, and the new downward wave has already broken the low of the last wave from May 30. Thus, we have an obvious sign of a trend change from bullish to bearish. Additionally, the pair consolidated below the trend channel, which it could not leave for almost two months. Everything indicates that we are at the beginning of a strong bearish trend.
The information background on Friday was important and strong. Of all the reports from the EU and the US, traders focused on the most important one. On Friday morning, traders did not react to the EU's Q1 GDP report. In the afternoon, they ignored the US unemployment and wage reports. The only report they paid attention to was the Nonfarm Payrolls. According to this report, the number of new jobs in the nonfarm sector increased by 272,000, far exceeding market expectations. This report caused the dollar to rise on Friday. However, the day before, the ECB decided to start easing monetary policy. Therefore, the combination of these two factors not only led to a sharp advance by the bears but possibly to the formation of a new bearish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the ascending trend line. Thus, the 4-hour chart also shows all signs of a trend change to bearish. The decline may continue towards the 61.8% correction level at 1.0714. A rebound from this level will favor the euro and lead to a small rise towards 1.0794. However, since the trend has changed to bearish, it is more likely to fall towards the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.0613.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
In the last reporting week, speculators opened 4,301 long contracts and closed 5,997 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned bearish a few weeks ago, but now the bulls once again hold the advantage, and they are increasing it. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is now 189,000, while short contracts amount to 121,000. The gap is widening again in favor of the bulls.
However, the situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. I do not see long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has begun easing monetary policy, which will lower the yields on bank deposits and government bonds. In the US, yields will remain high for at least several more months, making the dollar more attractive to investors.
News Calendar for the US and EU:
On June 10, the economic event calendar contains no significant entries. The influence of the information background on trader sentiment will be absent today.
Forecast for EUR/USD and Trading Tips:
Sales of the pair were possible after rebounds from the 1.0892 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0837. This target and the next two targets have been reached. New sales should be made if the pair closes below the 1.0748 level with a target of 1.0692. Euro purchases are possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.0748 level with a target of 1.0785–1.0797. However, purchases are not a priority at the moment.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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