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The EUR/USD pair on Friday made a reversal in favor of the US dollar around the corrective level of 61.8%-1.0722, and dropped to the Fibonacci level of 76.4%-1.0676. Such a movement was expected. The rebound of the pair from the level of 1.0676 already worked in favor of the European currency and started to rise towards the level of 1.0722. A rebound today from this level will return the pair into "bearish hands" with a potential drop back to 1.0676. Firming above the level of 1.0722 will increase the probability of further growth towards the next corrective level of 50.0%-1.0760.
The wave situation remains clear. The last completed upward wave turned out to be very weak and failed to break the peak of the previous wave. The last downward wave (which may still need to be completed) also failed to break the low of the previous wave. Thus, the "bearish" trend persists, but in the near future, the first sign of a trend change to "bullish" may appear. This sign will be a breakthrough of the peak of the last upward wave from June 18th. If this does not happen, I will expect a return to the level of 1.0676.
The information background on Friday influenced traders' sentiment, but I cannot say it was strong. Business activity indices in the European Union and Germany turned out to be weaker than traders' expectations, which led to selling the pair in the first half of the day. American business activity indices were slightly better than forecast, but bears failed to overcome the level of 1.0676, so the decline did not continue. The combination of graphical and information analysis worked quite well on Friday. The further prospects of the EUR/USD pair depend more on graphical analysis, as the information background this week will be relatively weak.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a new reversal in favor of the euro after forming a "bullish" divergence on the CCI indicator. The quotes have retraced to the Fibonacci level of 61.8%-1.0714, but I still do not believe in a long-term rise of the euro. Last week, on the 4-hour chart, there was a close below the trend line, which changed traders' sentiment to "bearish". Therefore, I expect a small (in strength) correction now, followed by a resumption of the "bearish" trend. I recommend using levels from the hourly chart at the moment.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 1260 long positions and opened 22966 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned "bearish" several weeks ago, and sellers are currently increasing their positions again. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 187 thousand, while short positions amount to 144 thousand. The gap is narrowing.
I still believe that the situation will continue to change in favor of bears. I see no long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has begun to soften its monetary policy, which will reduce the yield on bank deposits and government bonds. In America, they will remain at a high level for at least several more months, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for a decline in the European currency, even according to COT reports, looks impressive. If there is still a "bullish" sentiment among large players now, and the euro is falling, where will the euro be when the sentiment turns "bearish"?
News calendar for the USA and the European Union:
European Union - Business Climate Index in Germany (08:00 UTC).
On June 24, the economic events calendar contains only one entry of secondary importance. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment today will be very weak.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:
Sales of the pair were possible on the hourly chart with a bounce from the level of 1.0760, targeting 1.0676 and 1.0602. The first target was hit, and a bounce from it called for closing deals. New sales are possible with a bounce from the level of 1.0722. Buying the euro was possible on the hourly chart with a bounce from the level of 1.0676, targeting 1.0722. These deals can be kept open. If the price closes above 1.0722, the target for bulls will be 1.0760. Fibonacci levels are built on 1.0602-1.0917 on the hourly chart and on 1.0450-1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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