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If on Tuesday the dollar weakened without any serious reasons, aside from the contrived hype stirred up by the leading American media, then yesterday it strengthened, once again defying common sense. There were no significant macroeconomic data releases, but a 4.7% drop in new home sales certainly can't support strengthening the US currency. Most likely, the market was correcting the imbalances that had arisen the day before, returning to the levels it was on Tuesday morning. In other words, the situation in the market remains unchanged, albeit accompanied by considerable volatility.
Today's published data on US GDP is unlikely to have much impact, as it concerns final figures expected to merely confirm the preliminary estimates already factored in by the market. Attention can be paid to the durable goods orders, which might decrease by 0.1%. Given that the market cannot remain motionless, a decline in orders will likely lead to a symbolic weakening of the dollar.
The EUR/USD pair temporarily surpassed the 1.1200 level during market speculation, but market participants could not stabilize the quote above it. As a result, a price pullback occurred, with the pair still trading near the peak of the upward cycle.
In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves around the median level of 50, indicating a price pullback.
Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are intertwined, corresponding to a pullback phase.
Expectations and Prospects
For the next phase of growth, it's necessary to stabilize the quote above the 1.1200 mark throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which stands at 1.1276, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we can expect fluctuating movement around the current levels.
The complex indicator analysis in short-term and intraday periods indicates a pullback.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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