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The EUR/USD currency pair displayed interesting movements on Friday, allowing for several important conclusions. The key report of the day and the week, Nonfarm Payrolls, failed dramatically. Only 12,000 new jobs were created in October. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI also fell short. Despite this, the U.S. dollar appreciated by the end of the day. Such movement is illogical, suggesting that we might expect the continuation of the correction next week. However, as often noted, the euro should only fall in the medium term. The market has already priced in the entire or almost entire cycle of monetary policy easing in the U.S., so it doesn't matter how quickly the Federal Reserve will lower rates now. This may explain the dollar's growth on Friday. If so, the pair has formally corrected and can continue its medium-term decline.
On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Friday. Initially, the price bounced off the 1.0845-1.0851 area, albeit not very precisely, and then again bounced imprecisely from the 1.0888-1.0906 area. Eventually, it broke through the 1.0845-1.0851 area. We believe the first signal could have been executed, but it was better to exit the market and avoid risks during the release of the crucial U.S. data. Predicting the dollar's growth amid such labor market data was extremely difficult.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to correct after a month-long decline. At least, there are some grounds for the euro to rise. We believe the correction is unlikely to be strong, as continuous supportive news is required for the euro. Even then, such news may not always benefit the euro, given that the market is now set on buying the dollar.
On Monday, novice traders can trade around the 1.0845-1.0851 area. The price has consolidated below this area, allowing for a potential continuation of the decline.
On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following levels: 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1140. No significant events are planned for Monday in the U.S. or the Eurozone. We will watch to see if the pair can remain below the 1.0845-1.0851 area, allowing it to continue falling.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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