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The 1.2690 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and waited for Scenario #2 to sell. Shortly after, another test of 1.2690 coincided with the MACD indicator being in the overbought zone, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 pips.
During the mid-American session, the 1.2667 price test coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement, supported by strong U.S. retail sales data. This confirmed another selling opportunity that yielded approximately 30 pips of profit. Today, there are no economic reports from the U.K., so sellers might ease their pressure, leading to a slight GBP/USD correction, but likely no more. It's best not to rush into buying. I will focus primarily on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategy.
Scenario #1:
Today, I plan to buy the pound at the 1.2648 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2709 (thicker green line). Around 1.2709, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move downward from this level). Today's pound growth should only be considered part of a correction. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2:
Alternatively, I will buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2621 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Growth is expected toward the 1.2648 and 1.2709 levels.
Scenario #1:
I plan to sell the pound after the 1.2621 level is breached (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2567, where I plan to exit sales and open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound). Selling the pound is advisable but preferably from higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to move downward.
Scenario #2:
Alternatively, I will sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2648 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a downward reversal. Declines are expected toward the 1.2621 and 1.2567 levels.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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