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No tests of the specified levels occurred during the first half of the day, so all significant activity is deferred to the US session. Traders' cautious approach to new yen purchases and dollar sales is understandable, given the Federal Reserve's mixed signals regarding future rate cuts in the US.
Yesterday's statements from central bank officials were open to interpretation, making today's comments from FOMC members Adriana D. Kugler and Austan D. Goolsbee uncertain. While their opinions may not have the same market impact as speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the current macroeconomic conditions ensure that market participants will carefully analyze every word and tone. Even subtle hints of monetary policy changes could trigger significant fluctuations in the currency market.
For the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Plan to buy USD/JPY at 150.21 (green line on the chart) with a target of 150.85 (thicker green line on the chart). At 150.85, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point movement downward. The pair's upward movement is likely to happen only as part of a correction.Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.80 level, provided the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise toward 150.21 and 150.85.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: Plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 149.80 level (red line on the chart), which will likely result in a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 149.09, where I will exit sales and consider buying in the opposite direction, depending on market conditions.Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of the 150.21 level, provided the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a drop to 149.80 and 149.09.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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