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For the fourth consecutive day, the USD/CAD pair continues to attract buyers, retesting its highest level since April 2020 around the 1.4280 zone.
This upward movement is driven by a combination of factors:
Investors are now convinced that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious stance on rate cuts, especially as Monday's US macroeconomic data revealed that much of the economy grew at its fastest pace in three years. Speculation that Donald Trump's policies may lead to higher inflation and increased government borrowing pushed the yield on 10-year US government bonds to its highest level since November 22. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of a renewed trade war add support for the safe-haven US dollar.
Concerns about supply disruptions—driven by stricter sanctions against Iran and Russia—may help crude oil prices recover positive momentum. However, this is unlikely to provide significant support to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar in the near term.
Traders are advised to remain cautious and refrain from opening aggressive positions ahead of the release of Canada's latest consumer inflation data later today. Furthermore, monthly US retail sales data could provide short-term momentum at the start of the North American session. However, the primary focus will be on the outcome of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting on monetary policy concluding on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for new signals regarding the path of Fed rate cuts, which will drive demand for the US dollar and determine the short-term trajectory of the USD/CAD pair.
On the technical front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has entered overbought territory, which calls for some caution for the bulls.
In conclusion, while the pair remains bullish, caution is warranted near multi-year highs, and traders should monitor key data releases and the FOMC outcome closely.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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