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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair returned to the corrective level of 323.6% – 1.0532, where it has been trading for several weeks. A rebound from this level allows us to anticipate a slight decline toward 1.0420, but the price movement remains horizontal. Only the news background can trigger significant activity from bears or bulls, leading to a strong directional move. Until then, the pair's movements are likely to remain as they have been over the past few days or weeks.
The wave scenario is simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, and the last upward wave barely exceeded the previous peak. Thus, a bullish trend has formally started, but it looks very unconvincing and might already be over. To break the current bullish trend, the pair needs to fall below the 1.0461 level.
On Monday, the economic calendar was full, but neither the euro nor the US dollar managed to show notable performance by the end of the day.
The US data painted a similar picture:
Thus, the reports contradicted one another and failed to provide clear direction for either bulls or bears.
Christine Lagarde's speech in the morning stated that "the worst days are behind us" (referring to inflation) and reiterated that the ECB will continue to lower interest rates. As rate cuts are a bearish factor for the euro, strong growth in the euro would have been illogical.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair completed a second rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci correction level at 1.0603 and continued to decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0436. A bearish divergence on the CCI indicator further pushes the price downward.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
In the most recent reporting week, speculative traders closed 10,318 long positions and opened 7,766 short positions.
For 13 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their euro holdings. In my opinion, this signals the formation of a bearish trend. The key factor supporting the dollar's decline—expectations of FOMC policy easing—has already been priced in, leaving the market with no significant reason to continue selling the dollar.
On December 17, the calendar includes several noteworthy events, though none are major. The news background is expected to exert moderate influence on market sentiment.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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