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The test of the 156.61 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 50 pips.
Last Friday, data on the growth of the Consumer Price Index in Japan led to a renewed demand for the yen, weakening the position of the U.S. dollar. Weak U.S. data added to the challenges for USD/JPY buyers, resulting in further declines for the pair. Today, the market may stabilize somewhat, but a return of demand for the dollar should not be ruled out, especially given its significant depreciation against the yen. The bullish upward market driven by the Federal Reserve's commitment to higher interest rates remains intact, though potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan next year should also be considered.
I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 regarding intraday strategies.
Scenario #1: Plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.89 (green line on the chart) with a target of 157.28 (thicker green line). At the 157.28 level, I plan to exit the purchase and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It's best to bet on further pair growth and buy on pullbacks. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: Also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.47 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.89 and 157.28.
Scenario #1: Plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 156.47 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.11, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: Also, plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.89 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.47 and 156.11.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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