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The test of the 157.80 price level earlier today coincided with the MACD indicator significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I decided not to buy the dollar. After a sharp decline in the pair, the test of the 157.42 price level aligned with the MACD beginning its downward movement from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for selling the dollar, which led to a decline to the target level of 156.97.
During the American session, important U.S. Services PMI data and a speech by FOMC member Lisa D. Cook are expected. A hawkish tone from Cook may support the growth of USD/JPY, whereas a dovish position would highlight the narrowing gap between the monetary policies of the U.S. and Japan, further weakening the dollar in line with the morning trend. Regarding intraday strategies, I will rely more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY today near the 157.39 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 157.81 (thicker green line on the chart). At 157.81, I plan to exit long positions and open sell trades for a pullback of 30–35 points. Pair growth can be anticipated following a hawkish Fed stance.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting its upward movement.
Scenario #2: Buy USD/JPY today after two consecutive tests of the 156.79 level when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will cap the pair's downward potential and likely reverse the market upward. Targets would be 157.39 and 157.81.
Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY today after the 156.79 level is breached (red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline in the pair. Sellers' key target will be 156.32, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long trades for a 20–25-point rebound. Renewed downward pressure may follow a dovish tone from Cook.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: Sell USD/JPY today after two consecutive tests of the 157.39 level when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will cap the pair's upward potential and likely reverse the market downward. Expect a decline toward 156.79 and 156.32.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
